Liberty : 22-25

Home : 13-8

Away: 9-17

Q1: 1-11

Q2: 4-2

Q3: 7-8

Q4: 10-4

RPI : 70

SOS :30

Non Conference SOS : 1st

ASUN : 12-12

The 2023 season has been a roller coaster all year but this past weekend may have reached it's peak.  It's been easy to get frustrated and write this season off several times including after last week's 0 and 4 showing on the road that saw the Flames blow multiple leads.  Then in true roller coaster fashion they bounce back to walk off a top 50 ODU club for a series sweep and rebound from a disappointing Friday opener that really wasn't competitive.  Then the Flames bounce back to run rule the Gamecocks on both Saturday and Sunday including 16 runs in the final 3 innings including 11 in the 6th.  You just can't give up on this team with the way things are going.  An at-large doesn't seem to be in the cards barring a virtually undefeated run through the rest of the regular season an ASUN tournament (and loss in title game) because the Flames just aren't going to have enough wins overall.  However, this team has a flair for the dramatic and as we've seen crazy things happen in tournament play.  Jacksonville was a wounded animal with something like 15 or 16 wins all year and they came out and won the tournament and showed well in the Regional.  

What's left

Just 7 games are left in the 23 regular season including 4 at home with VT and Bellarmine (3) and a pivotal road series with EKU.  Those teams are 51 170 and 254 respectively in the RPI heading into the final 2 weeks of action.  The RPI and these games matter for ASUN tourney seeding and if the Flames can get in the tournament you want to be on that 3 seed line instead of the 4 so you don't have to play the host in the opening round.  As you've probably already read the top 8 get into the ASUN tourney and it's built to protect the RPI of the top teams most likely to win which features the top teams in Pod 1.  The second pod of 4 teams really have to earn it.  Liberty moved into a tie for 8th place with KSU & Central Arkansas and they hold the tie break over both,  North Florida is really the only other team in play at 11 and 13 and Liberty holds the tie break via series win over them as well.  EKU has won 6 straight and will be a huge series for Liberty.  If they can win 2 of 3 in that series then they should pretty much be safe to get in.  The Bellarmine series is at home where the Flames have been great and frankly Bellarmine stinks and will be easily the worst team LU has played in conference play this year.  Looks to me that North Florida has the toughest remaining schedule left.  Central Arkansas seems to have the next toughest as they play 2 very solid clubs.  Liberty and KSU's are similar with 1 tough road opponent and a home series against a bottom feeder that they should sweep.  

KSU - @ FGCU and home against North Alabama

NF - Home vs FGCU & @ Jacksonville 

Central Arkansas - @ JSU and against EKU 

SOS 

I know the program has always played tough schedules and the staff wants to challenge the team and you never know exactly how these things play out since they are done 2 years in advance but this year has been a doozy.  The WU re-schedule due to COVID added an extra series on the road with Southern Miss and ECU already on the docket.  Further, the ASUN gave the Flames a parting gift as they played the top 3 teams (FGCU, Lipscomb & Stetson all on the road).  They also didn't play 2 of the 3 worst teams in the league at all in North Alabama and Queens who have a combined 9 wins.  In a normal year that's a good thing because a loss to those dogs can really hurt but that may have been different this year as the Flames have struggled to get a sweep.  In any event the RPI still sits at 70 and overall SOS is 30th and non conference SOS is 1st.  Not sure how many times that's happened at LU in any sport.  

Keys to Finishing strong 

At this point in the year it's going to be hard to change a lot.  Many players and teams are what they are at this point.  The offense has really come around and has continued to evolve through the season.  DH is really the lone position that the Flames have been unable to get consistent production.  They've tried a variety of guys but nothing has really worked.  Todd Hudson did DH the last 2 and provided a HR Saturday.  Infield defense has struggled all year and I don't see it getting too much better this late in the season.  The pen is loaded and has been up and down all year.  There are a lot of quality arms down there and it's really about finding who's hot and and mixing and matching depending on the opponent.  To me, the fate of the season relies on the starters.  Horn seems to be hitting a wall as he's eclipsed the career high innings mark.  Tepper had been improving but was pulled after just 3 IP Sunday and Horn was pulled after 1 IP Friday.  Doesn't sound like either guy is injured so we should see them next week. Gainey has been knocked around lately and seems to have fallen out of the rotation.  I'm not sure if Moran is going to come back this late but we've heard for the last several weeks he's getting closer.  Then there's Trey Cooper and Ryan Butler who have been 2 of the most effective guys on the staff recently.  If they can continue to do well in their respective midweek and Saturday roles and provide some length it allows the bullpen to stay in it's defined roles.  If you can get 5 to 6 IP out of the starters you feel good with the quality of arm in the pen.  Virtually everybody on the staff hits 90 mph.  5 years ago if we had 4 or 5 that was impressive.  The game has changed and gone are the days where LU has 2 or 3 guys throw 100 IP like we used too.  This is the new normal.  Starting pitching will tell the story the rest of the way IMHO.  Buckle up, we're about to figure out just how good of a roller coaster it is they we are riding.  

Bonus : This season has felt a little like the 2013 season to me.  Liberty limped to a 13 and 11 conference record and was dominant at home and equally as bad on the road.  The Flames limped into the tournament and dropped the first game to Radford.  Liberty sat at 29-27 and had their backs against the wall.  The Flames proceeded to rip off 5 straight wins in the Big South Tournament (Sizemore walk off homer to stave off elimination vs Radford) and exorcise the demon that had haunted them in the Coastal Carolina Chants twice on a chilly Friday.  Liberty had lost something like 25 straight games to the Chants before that day.  That set up a championship Saturday at Liberty Baseball Stadium against 51 win Campbell for a trip to the Regionals.  Liberty won 2-1 and beat MLB reliever Ryan Thompson who was unhittable that year for Campbell.  Liberty landed in the Columbia regional with Clemson and South Carolina to literally zero fanfare.  That changed quickly as Trey Wimmer helped the Flames slug their was past Clemson 8 to 3 in the opener.  SC would smoke the Flames 19-3 but Liberty bounced back to eliminate Clemson 3-1 before falling 6 to 4 to USC Monday.  That's the kind of success the program has had in a similar year where things didn't go as planned.  

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