MLB Draft 2026 & Roster Outlook

 

Liberty had quite a bit of action on it's own players, signees & commitments.  Ben Blair obviously topped the list as he was selected 49th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays as he became the highest draft pick since Sid Bream was selected at 48 all the way back in the 80's.  The pick has a slot value of around $2.2MM.  There were several other teams in the mix and at the top of the list were the Rockies and Padres.  Typically, pitchers are shut down for the year after the draft so it's likely that we've seen the last of Blair for the year.  The Rays Low A affiliate resides in Charleston SC and they frequently play in Lynchburg against the Howlers and Salem against the Ridgeyaks but Blair may skip that level altogether depending no how Spring Training goes.  It's most likely that he starts out 2027 in High A with the Bowling Green Hot Rods in Bowling Green, Kentucky.  Blair has already made a couple trips there to face the Hilltoppers of WKU in his college career.  You have to love this landing spot for Blair as the Rays have been a pitching factory over the years.  Although, if he becomes a star he likely won't sign his big contract in Tampa.  They almost always deal away players before they hit FA to get some value back.  

Next up, was Tanner Marsh at pick #261 in the 9th round by the Athletics.  The A's are headed to Las Vegas but the stadium isn't ready yet.  Slot value for this pick is just over $212M.  Ironically enough, Tre Phelps from Georgia was selected just 3 picks before Marsh.  Just goes to show you what the league thought of Marsh and Phelps was pretty darn similar despite all the showboating that Phelps put on in the regional.  The Athletics list him as a 2B which could be because their system is loaded with high end SS's including 4 of their top 10 prospects.  Leo Devries is the #2 prospect in the game with an ETA of late 2026 for his MLB Debut.  The Athletics usually have a good system and have shown a strong developmental track record despite spending little to no money at the MLB level.  

Tyler August went #471 in the 16th round to the Athletics as well where he will join Tanner Marsh.  Once you get to the later rounds of the draft there are no slot values assigned.  Every situation is between the player and the organization.  If a HS senior or draft eligible College Sophomore or Junior is taken they usually have more leverage and can get a bit more money.  College Seniors have virtually no leverage and can be signed for as little as $10k.  All in all it's a good landing spot for August with anothe organization that's done a good job developing arms recently with the likes of Gage Jump & Masen Miller.  The Flames will wish August well as he has a deal in place with the A's.  

Delaware St. transfer Michael Lane went just 15 picks later in the 16th round to the Detroit Tigers.  Lane had an excellent sophomore campaign before taking a step back on a horrid 2026 team.  He was up to 96 this past spring but won't make his way to the Flames as he had a deal agreed to upon selection.  

The Flames stayed hot as Josh Swink went just a few picks later to the Rockies with the 1st pick in the 17th round.  It had been hard to get a read on exactly where Swink was going but I had heard it was 50/50 right up to draft day.  Funky lefties tend to hang around the game a while if they can do something different within an organization.  It's a tough landing spot for any pitcher with the pitching starved Rockies but Swink will get his shot to make his mark in the league.  Swink also had a deal in place with the Rockies and will be moving on.

The Flames were able to get HS commit Tre Miller through the draft.  There were a couple clubs that were flirting with the SS from Mississippi, most notably the Royals.  In the end, Miller stuck to his number and the clubs involved were unwilling or unable to hit it later in the draft so Miller will be headed to Lynchburg here in a few weeks.  He's a talented young SS that could be the next in a long line of greats at the position for the Flames.

So where do the Flames go next?  Well, the portal is closed however there's still plenty of talent available in the portal.  The cycle has continued to evolve each year with changes to the portal dates but I'd expect the Flames to be active as they suddenly have some funds that they were holding for guys like Swink/August/Lane that they may be able to deploy to attract some additional talent.  I will tell you the entry point for relievers with a sub 4 ERA is mind boggling.  I'm not sure if the Flames will be shopping at Nordstrom for 1 high end reliever or headed to Old Navy to get 2 or 3 more pieces with upside.  I've also heard they'd still look at 1 more bat but that could change.  Overall,  my takeaway is the Flames are back.  They're back in as a T50 program that can threaten a top 25 ranking, challenge for conference titles, regional finals, multiple high end draft picks and more.  I know it hurts losing guys like Swink & August who could have played pivotal roles but that's College Baseball and that mean's your doing something right.  The goal is get old and stay old and replace roughly the same # of players each year.  I still think the Flames have improved offensively immensely and they will have a top 2 starters that can match up with anyone in the country.  If there's 1 area that is totally unpredictable it's relievers.  I think the Flames will be just fine here when it's all said and done.  I know they have a couple key visits coming up this week so hopefully there's additional good news here in the coming days.

Finally, let's take a look at how the draft works.  I received quite a few DM's, texts, call & questions in person the last couple weeks.  I really think there's a lot of mystery on how exactly the MLB Draft works these days.  Let me start with this.  It's nothing like the NFL and NBA draft.  Each team has an assigned bonus pool that is impacted by Free agent signings and defections.  Teams can trade their comp round picks (as you saw the White Sox do with the Pirates the night before.  NIL has become a huge force in the game and we saw a record number of players drop out of the draft just before the draft to lock up NIL money.  Scouts have been looking at these players for several years and most of time the player will know the teams involved because they've seen the scouts at their games regularly.  They will have a good feel for where they could be taken and there are some pre draft discussions on "what it will take to sign".  MLB clubs generally view HS pitching as the most risky proposition in the draft.  That's followed by HS Catchers.  College Seniors have virtually no leverage these days so players are really forced to try to sign before they get to be a senior unless they can increase their stock dramatically (which does sometimes happen).  Clubs will get on the phone with players agents as their pick nears and ask if they will take _____ number of Dollars.  Players can move up and down boards based on their willingness to accept a below slot deal.  Brody Brumilla was HS LHP from the NE that throw 100 mph but a UCL injury was revealed right before the draft.  He fell to the 3rd round but the Rangers took him and gave him "1st round money" was the word on the street.  So Brumilla is likely headed to the Rangers rather than his commitment to Texas.  Through all this, College teams are trying to manage a roster and NIL funds when you don't know exactly who's going to be on the roster.  Thankfully, the portal was changed to close on June 30 so teams can at least rule out portal defections which wasn't the case as late as 2 years ago.  I remember VT lost their starting C about a week before classes started.  I follow the Red Sox so I can give a great example.  The Sox took UNC starting SS Jake Shaffner which shocked the industry.  He was ranked 75th & 98th by BA and MLB pipeline respectively.  Shaffner's a good player and no doubt the Sox like him but they most assuredly signed him to a well below slot deal to save that money for later.  The plans became a little more apparent in round 9 when they selected HS OF Martin Shelar who led all high schoolers with 19 homers in just 33 games and he also had a 55 grade arm, run & power tool rating by pipeline.  He was committed to Hail State so you know it took way more than $200K slot value to get Shelar to agree to a deal.  I would expect it was more like $1.5MM to $2MM and Shaffner probably got around $2.5MM instead of the $4.3MM slot value.  You ask why a kid might take and it's because Shaffner was probably expecting to go more in the late 2nd and 3rd round so sure if a team likes him and will give him the same money who doesn't want to be a 1st rounder, or drafted significantly higher than expected?

Every team has a different philosophy on how to use those funds but as you can tell now it's not just a straight line them up and take the BPA like other sports.  It's also become very difficult to develop high school kids.  When MLB eliminated the short season teams several years ago there really isn't a good place to develop the HS kids.  Most, look completely overmatched in Low A where they are playing lower round College players 3 or 4 years older and International players that are often T50 prospects in their respective system.  The FCL is an option but you don't really see as many stateside players there are you do International players who have made their way over from the DSL as they try to acclimate to life in the US and learn a new language.  NIL and the COVID year have kept kids around longer as well so College Players who were fading in popularity 10-15 years ago have become much more attractive. GM's or CBO's (whatever title the organization uses) have 3-4 years to show they can win before they get fired.  So, more often than not they lean into College Players these days since the International kids they sign are already young and require a longer developmental cycle.  My last thought on the topic is around positional value.  I used to see a team select 5 SS's in a draft and think man if I was 1 of those guys I wouldn't sign, especially after I look and see 5 more in the T30 of a system.  Most, won't stick at SS as the game will demand too much of them as the competition goes up.  Some will get too big and have to move to Corner IF.  Other's, perhaps like a Tanner Marsh will move to 2B because they can do it and their value is higher with a strong hit tool at 2B where those players are hard to find.  Still others will move the OF, to better utilize their skillset.  

Hopefully that was a helpful look at what I feel like is a very interesting part of the game.