Record: 29-15
Asun: 15-7 (1st place by 1/2 game)
RPI: 39
Quad 1: 5-7
Quad 2 : 4-2
Liberty won 7 to 5 over Jacksonville on Friday with a game that had a little bit of everything. Liberty pulled out to an early 4 to 0 lead behind a barrage of early doubles. Mason Adams and the Dolphins would claw back into the game. Adams is one of the better starters in the league as he can run it up to the low 90's and everything he throws has good movement. Liberty was just 4 and 14 all time against the Dolphins before the win. Horn would go 5 innings and allow just 2 run despite not having his best stuff. HC Scott Jackson noted post game that that most teams have swung at the elevated fastball from Horn and got behind this year but the Dolphins took a more disciplined approach that drove his pitch count up. They also put some of the best swings of anybody that I have seen all year have against Horn. The bullpen was leaky all game but did just enought to hang onto the weekend. The Flames used all of their front line pen pieces but Erickson. I would expect most of them could pitch an inning each or so the rest of the series but based on recent usage Moran and Erickson are the only 2 pen guys that have seen regular action that didn't get used Friday. Jacksonville kept the pressure on in the late innings but Carter and Hungate escaped 3 jams with 2 or more runners on in the late innings. Aaron Anderson made perhaps the play of the year on a wet surface with a diving catch to end the 8th with 2 on as Hungate came on to relieve Beamon. Considering the circumstances, (home, series opener, struggles vs Jville, ace on the mound, used most of our best pen guys, wet) that could have been disastrous had that ball have gotten down or even worse through. Gulakowski would smash a solo in the bottom of the 8th (his 11th of the year) to give the Flames a 2 run lead again. That would prove pivotal as Hungate had the bases load with 2 outs before getting the final ground out to end the game. Hungate hasn't been super clean this year but he's been able to get out of all but 1 or jams he's been in.
FGCU is playing at KSU this weekend starting with a DH today. The Flames have a half game lead after the Friday win. This is a series Liberty could really benefit from a sweep. The Dolphins have hung around #100 in the RPI for the last month and half. Further, if FGCU is to lose 2 of 3 or get swept at KSU it would put their regular season title hopes on life support as they sit at 12 and 9. The best scenario for Liberty would actually probably be for the Eagles to win 2 of 3 from KSU. After this weekend the Flames have FGCU on the road and KSU at home to finish out the conference slate. There are 2 midweek games left including a massive game against VT on the road who is likely to be top 10 when we play. The last home game is a trap game against High Point who is #220 in the RPI and 16 and 28. That's still a must win game.
ASUN Tourney
The conference tournament is a weird format and others have discussed it at length so I won't spend too much time trying to explain it because frankly it's really a wait and see approach on how this will work. The one good thing about it is that the dogs of the conference won't be there providing for a potential RPI killing loss in the tourney. Liberty will obviously benefit if they can hold onto to the 1 seed. It will be interesting to see how the Flames lay out the pitching staff with the tourney format. I would expect to see something like Horn and Adametz first to have one of them available for the potential title game. Matchups of course matter. I know the Flames really like Dylan Cumming vs FGCU.
Regional Projections:
Look, you can find a regional projection showing Liberty in about 10 different places. The key is that they are in probably 85% of projections I've seen. Historically, there are 2 metrics that almost certainly guarantee a team an at large birth and if a team has both they are a stone cold lock. That combo is 40 wins and top 40 RPI. 40 wins will be difficult for Liberty with somewhere between 13 and 15 games left depending on the way the tournament plays out. If Liberty wins the tournament they will almost certainly hit the 40 win threshold but then of course it won't matter for an at large. Liberty has sat around 40 in the RPI for the better part of the last month which is a good sign. The rest of the schedule really sets up well for Liberty save for the High Point game. At this point, Liberty almost has to beat High Point and win at least 1 of the remaining 2 Jacksonville games to take that series. In the remaining 7 games if they could take some combo of 4 and 3 or 5 and 2 I believe they would be a lock short of a disappointing tourney run. A sweep these weekend really puts the Flames in great shape and perhaps gives them some breathing room. A win at VT this week would be massive to the hopes and paired with a Jacksonville sweep would likely have the Flames back in the top 30 in the RPI headed into the last 2 weeks of the regular season. Liberty hasn't played well in the midweek lately and Tech has mashed the ball all year. That will be a very tough matchup. If history hold true then it's very likely the Flames could end up in a UVA, VT or Louisville regional. It's not 100%, but usually the NCAA goes very regional heavy in these matchups. Liberty is still firmly in position to get on the 2 seed line with a strong finish as well.
Keys to finish the season strong
To me there are 4 very obvious keys to Liberty finishing the season strong
First - Adametz, Cumming & Gibson - once these guys got going the season flipped back around. Liberty just needs 5 or 6 good innings and occasionally 7 out of these guys. The pen is good enoguh win most games if we get a good start.
Second - Gulakowski & Orndorff - these 2 guys have the potential to carry a lineup. Orndorff had the hottest streak I've ever seen in the program the first 3 weeks of the season. He's cooled since then for many reasons. He was obviously the center of the oppositions scouting report and i'm sure the HBP in the head didn't help either. Gulakowski started kind of slow but then had a hot 2 week or so stretch and is red hot again heading into the last couple weeks. We all remember what he did in Knoxville last year (if you don't just ask Duke). If we can get both of these guys hot with the longball at the same time they can carry the Flames.
Third - Don't let things snowball. The staff has done a great job of settling down the guys with mound visits or rough stretches on the mound recently. Things snowballed at points earlier in the year and one mistake was compounded with another. Mistakes happen but Liberty needs to keep up the recent practices of not letting one mistake lead to another.
Fourthly - Develop 1 or 2 more end game relievers. Moran has come on in recent weeks and could be a key second lefty out of the pen. Liberty has 5 guys out of the pen they have leaned on regularly. Tournaments and Regionals tax pitching staffs and i think Liberty would love to see one more guy at least step up and join that group of guys that can be relied on in late spots.
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